On November 3, 2023, the KSE100 index closed at 53,123 and surpassed its previous all-time high of 52,876 points, which was last observed in May’17. This was made possible due to a variety of factors, including:
- IMF Stand-by Arrangement amounting USD 3.0bn signed back in Jun’23.
- Formation of Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in areas including Agriculture, Mining, Energy and Information technology
- Robust results of listed companies which jumped by +46% YoY during 9MCY23 and +66% YoY in 3QCY23.
- Impressive dividends announcement by the companies (9MCY23: +42% YoY | 3QCY23: +18% YoY)
- Buyback spree in the listed space where total buy-backs clocked in at PKR 41bn since May 2022.
- Peaked out inflation (Sep’23: 31.4%) and interest rates (Oct’23: 22%) and expectations of monetary easing cycle.
- Easing off import restrictions post IMF program and revival of economic activities.
- Currency strengthening (+8.4% regained since low of PKR 307/USD)
- Energy sector reforms including electricity and gas tariff hikes along with theft and recovery drive by the authorities.
- IMF’s first review is in progress with almost all of the targets met for IMF’s 2nd tranche.
- Current Account Deficit declined by 58% YoY to USD 947mn in 1QFY24.
- After a 14-month period, LSM finally saw positive YoY growth in Aug’23 (+ 2.5% YoY | +8.4% MoM)
- Tax collection above target (4MFY24: PKR 2.8trn, +28% YoY, surpassed target by PKR 66bn)
- Bumper production of important crops (FY24 –cotton arrival 15-Oct-24): 6.8mn bales vs. 4.9mn bales during FY23)
- General election date announcement – Feb 08, 2024
Courtesy – AHL Research