Power generation increased by 4.9% YoY to 14,839 GWh (19,945 MW) during July ’23, compared to 14,151 GWh (19,020 MW) during July ’22. On a MoM basis, generation also increased by 8.2%. During 7MCY23, power generation decreased by 8.5% YoY to 75,861 GWh (14,910 MW) compared to 82,948 GWh (16,303 MW) during 7MCY22. The decline in power generation during 7MCY23 is triggered by the overall decline in economic activity across the country and lower domestic consumption due to the rise in electricity tariffs we view.
Power generation during July ’23 (including transmission losses) remained 1.2% lower at 14,388 GWh (19,573 MW) than the reference generation of 14,562 GWh (19,339 MW). The difference between the actual and reference generation will result in a tariff increase regarding Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA).
Major contributors during July ’23 were Hydel (share: 37.2%), RLNG (share: 19.7%), Coal (share: 14.7%), Nuclear (share: 14.2%), Gas (share: 7.6%), Wind (share: 3.7%), FO (share: 2.0%), Solar (share: 0.5%), and Bagasse (share: 0.3%).
China Power Hub Generation generated 160GWh (Load Factor: 16%) during July ’23 compared to 412GWh (Load Factor: 42%) during July ’22. The load factor of the plant remained low because of coal import issues. Thar Energy Limited (TEL)’s load factor increased to 85% during Jul’23 (Jun’23: 84%), and the plant generated 208 GWh during Jul’23. To recall, due to transmission constraints, TEL was unavailable from Feb’23 to Mar’23 for power generation.
The total hydel-based generation increased by 11% YoY due to a 35% YoY rise from Karot Hydro and a 10% YoY rise in generation from WAPDA.
Cost of Power Generation decreased by 22.1% YoY during July ’23
The cost of power generation decreased by 22.1% YoY to PKR 8.34/KWh (PKR 8.96/KWh including transmission losses) during July ’23, but still higher than the reference cost of PKR 6.89/KWh. On this basis, there is a projected rise of PKR 2.07/KWh in fuel charge adjustments in the forthcoming months. YoY decline was witnessed during July ’23 which was led by the following reasons;
Coal-based cost of generation decreased by 43% YoY due to cheaper local coal-based power plants added to the system.
FO-based cost of generation decreased by 20% YoY.
RLNG-based generation cost also decreased by 14% YoY to PKR 24.4/KWh due to 6% YoY decline in RLNG prices to PKR 3,566/mmbtu.
Hydel, Nuclear, Wind, and solar-based generation increased by 11% YoY, 5% YoY, 6% YoY, and 6%.
Courtesy – AHL Research