Pakistan's power generation is stable at 0.2% YoY in November 2025

In Nov’25, power generation remained stable at 0.2% YoY, reaching 8,050 GWh, compared to 8,032 GWh in Nov’24. During 5MFY26, generation totaled 58,869 GWh, also stable from the previous year, according to a report by AHL Research.
However, on a MoM basis, power generation declined sequentially, falling 18.6%, reflecting seasonal effects.
Power generation remained 1.01% below the NEPRA reference (8,133 GWh), primarily due to the continued rise in distributed generation, despite lower tariffs and a shift of captive consumers to the grid following the imposition of the levy.
The impact of PPA terminations and renegotiations has largely been absorbed through QTAs, with NEPRA approving a negative QTA of PKR 1.89/kWh for 4QFY25, applied during Aug–Oct 2025. QTAs are now normalizing, as reflected by the 1QFY26 QTA of PKR 0.33/kWh for Dec–Feb 2026. However, power demand running 5.2% below reference generation in 5MFY26 could exert upward pressure on tariffs going forward.
Adjusted fuel cost in Nov’25 stood at PKR 6.16/KWh (the lowest since May’21), below the reference cost of PKR 6.88/KWh.
Consequently, DISCOs have sought a negative FCA of PKR 0.72/kWh, primarily reflecting lower-than-assumed oil prices and a higher hydel and lower thermal generation mix than NEPRA’s reference. Softer imported coal prices further supported the negative adjustment. NEPRA had assumed Brent crude at USD 73/bbl, whereas actual prices averaged USD 63/bbl in Nov’25.

Nov’25: Cost of power generation down 15% YoY

Imported coal-based generation costs declined to PKR 14.13/kWh, down 5.3% YoY, driven by lower coal prices. Imported coal generation was priced at a PKR 3.64/kWh discount to Thar coal, partly reflecting reduced Thar coal output. Historically, Thar’s coal-based power has carried a ~PKR 4/kWh premium over imported coal.
Hydel and RLNG generation exceeded NEPRA’s reference, while nuclear, Thar coal, and imported coal generation fell short of forecasts.
Hydel generation increased 10.2% YoY to 3,153 GWh in Nov’25, the highest ever for the month, defying earlier expectations of weaker hydel flows this year. Output was 21.7% above the reference level, materially supporting lower fuel costs.
RLNG-based generation declined 23.3% YoY to 696 GWh in Nov’25, but remained 63.4% above the reference target for the month, exerting upward pressure on fuel costs, partly offset by lower oil prices.
Imported coal generation fell 14.7% YoY to 407 GWh in Nov’25 and also remained 32.5% below NEPRA’s reference, likely due to higher system constraints during the winter season.
Power generation in Nov’25 was 1.0% below the 8,133 GWh reference, with a surplus of 150 GWh despite lower tariffs and captive consumers switching to the grid.
Power generation in Dec’25 is expected to remain broadly stable MoM. Hydel output may continue to outperform earlier expectations of weaker water flows, supporting lower fuel costs and, in turn, negative FCAs. Looking ahead, NEPRA projects power demand to grow by 2.8% YoY in FY26.

Courtesy – AHL Research