AHL Research has released a report on the Pakistan Oil and Gas Marketing Sector encompassing October data, where OMC sales (ex-FO) are up 2% YoY to 1.47 million tons.
- Pakistan’s petroleum sales registered a significant 9.2% MoM increase, reaching 1.50mn tons in Oct’25. The improvement in volumes was mainly driven by higher HSD demand with the onset of the Rabi sowing season.
- MS offtake fell 3.8% MoM to 0.66mn tons, likely due to higher retail prices.
- HSD sales rose significantly by 20.7% MoM to 0.71mn tons, driven by higher demand with the onset of the Rabi sowing season.
- On a YoY basis, total OMC sales (ex-FO) increased by 2.3% to 1.47mn tons, compared to 1.44mn tons in the same period last year.
- HSD volumes increased by 4.1% YoY in Oct’25 largely attributed to effective curtailment of smuggled petroleum products from Iran and improved farm economics.
- However, MS volumes declined by 1.6% YoY, reflecting the impact of higher prices, averaging PKR 266/litre in Oct’25, up 7.6% YoY.
- Conversely, FO sales plunged 52% YoY due to reduced reliance on FO based power generation.
- Cumulatively, in 4MFY26, total petroleum product sales (ex-FO) increased 8.3% YoY to 5.3mn tons compared to 4.9mn tons in SPLY.
- Product-wise, MS and HSD volumes clocked in at 2.63mn tons and 2.34mn tons, respectively, whereas FO sales declined to 0.075mn tons (down 72% YoY, due to PKR 77/litre PDL introduced in the FY26 budget).
GO sustains upward trend in market share
- On a company-wise basis, PSO’s sales declined by 7.6% YoY to 0.64mn tons in Oct’25. MS and HSD offtake fell by 10.9% and 7.1% YoY, respectively, while FO offtake inched up by 0.2% YoY.
- Meanwhile, the offtake of APL decreased by 0.1% YoY to 0.12mn tons.
- WAFI (SHEL) dispatches surged 13.7% YoY on a low base, while HASCOL’s offtake declined by 8.7% YoY.
- PSO’s market share in 4MFY26 substantially shrunk by 2.7% to 42.1% vis-à-vis 44.8% in SPLY.
- The market share of APL also declined by 0.4% arriving at 8.4% YoY in 4MFY26.
- On the other hand, the market share of WAFI improved at 8.4% (+1.1% YoY) in 4MFY26.
- HASCOL’s market share in 4MFY26 remained steady at 3.2%.
- The market share of Gas and Oil Pakistan Ltd (GO) improved by 3.7% significantly to 12.9% in 4MFY26 compared to 9.2% in SPLY.
- With this, the Petroleum Levy (PL) collection in 4MFY26 stands at ~PKR 503.6bn.
- To recall, the Federal Government has set a revised PL target of PKR 1,468bn (monthly average of PKR 112bn) for FY26.
