· 1HFY23 marked a phenomenal period for the MPCL, with a weakening exchange rate alongside Arab light prices, providing a much-needed impetus to the sector overall in the face of lacklustre production (flood damages, annual fertiliser plant turnarounds).

· According to the latest PPIS reserves data, MARI’s 2P reserves stood at 870MMBOE as of Jun’22. Reserves of its largest asset—Mari field—are estimated to stand at 4.84TCF of gas.

· Assuming throughput from the field at ~750MMCFD going forward, the field could continue production for another ~18 years, despite 58% depletion.

· As the company supplies most of its gas production to the fertiliser sector (~90% in FY22, 662mmcfd), it is shielded from circular debt-related receivable build-ups.

· MARI is our top pick from the sector, with a Dec’23 target price of PkR2,900/sh on the stock, offering upside potential of 90% over the last close

Courtesy – AKD Research