• Surpassing our expectations, Pakistan’s current account surplus for three consecutive months stood at US$491mn in Apr-2024, a significant increase from US$434mn in Mar-2024. This unexpected surplus was due to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reporting a much lower trade deficit than the PBS (72% of PBS) compared to the 10MFY24 ratio of 90%. As a result, 10MFY24 Current Account Deficit decreased to US$202mn vs US$3,920mn in 10MFY23.
• Remittances were down 5% MoM while up 28% YoY to US$2.8bn in Apr-2024. This takes 10MFY24 remittances to US$23.8bn, up 4% YoY.
• The country’s foreign exchange reserves in April 2024 were up 4% Month over Month to US$13.3bn. The reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) remained flat Month over Month despite the repayment of US$1 bn in Eurobonds. 
• Pakistan’s Inflation in April 2024 was 17.34% YoY, compared to 20.68% in March 2024. This is the lowest reading in the last 23 months (after May 2022). On a Month-on-Month basis, CPI inflation decreased by 0.4% in April 2024, compared to +1.7% last month. This takes the 10MFY24 average inflation to 25.97%, compared to 28.23% in 10MFY23.

Courtesy – Topline Research