IMS Research has released a report on the Kharif season, which reveals a strong start, with urea offtake in April 2026 rising 85% YoY to 463K MT, while DAP volumes fell 11% YoY to 85K MT. The increase in urea sales is attributed to higher wheat prices during harvesting (MSP at PKR3,500/maund vs PKR2,400–2,600/maund last year). Cumulatively, Urea/DAP offtake is up 11/54% YoY in the first four months of 2026.

Key highlights include:

– **FFC**: Urea offtake doubled (up 2.2x) against the industry’s 85% increase, led by Sona-Prilled rising 2.4x, boosting FFC’s market share to 52% (+9ppt YoY); DAP offtake rose 15% YoY, increasing market share by 16ppt YoY to 73%.

– **EFERT**: Urea sales increased 35% YoY to 109K MT, underperforming the market with a 9ppt loss in market share to 24%. DAP sales plummeted 75% YoY due to import difficulties.

– **Closing Inventory**: Urea stock remains high at 805K MT, with EFERT holding 459K MT (57% of total), while FATIMA and FFC hold 232K and 98K MT, respectively.

With the resumption of the Minimum Support Price for wheat, Kharif is off to a strong start. FFC is our top pick with a target price of PKR638/sh due to its market dominance, low-cost feedstock gas, strong balance sheet, and diversified earnings, which provide a natural hedge against fertilizer-sector seasonality.