• The provisional fertilizer offtake data showcased a 22% YoY fall in urea sales for Oct’24, settling at 357k tons which is primarily due to weak agronomics.  
• On a company-wise basis, urea offtake of EFERT and FATIMA reduced by 43% and 35% YoY, clocking in at 99k tons and 59k tons, respectively. Meanwhile, the sales of FFC and FFBL Group remained stable at 179k tons on YoY basis.  
• On a MoM basis, urea sales dropped by 2%. The urea dispatches of FFC and FFBL combined and FATIMA plummeted by 22% and 15% MoM, respectively. Whereas, EFERT’s offtake climbed up by 76% MoM.
• On a cumulative basis, urea sales in 10MCY24 reduced by 9% YoY to 4,931k tons. Offtake of EFERT and FATIMA dwindled by 25% and 13% YoY, respectively settling at 1,421k tons and 680k tons, respectively. Meanwhile, urea sales of FFC and FFBL registered a 2% YoY growth, reaching 2,403k tons.

Seasonality factor drives up DAP sales

•        DAP dispatches in Oct’24 clocked in at 263k tons, significantly up by 66% YoY | 97% MoM amid pre-buying before the beginning of Rabi season. With this, total offtake during 10MCY24 arrived at 1,193k tons, up 3% YoY.

•        On a company-specific basis, DAP sales of FFBL augmented by 64% YoY | 44% MoM, to 113k tons in Oct’24. Hence, FFBL’s DAP offtake in 10MCY24 settled at 657k tons, down 5% YoY.

•        Similarly, FFC’s dispatches clocked in at 43k ton, up  87% YoY | 6x MoM. Hence, cumulative sales of 10MCY24 settled at 117k tons, up 16% YoY.  

•        Whereas, EFERT’s DAP offtake in Oct’24 surged by 90% YoY | 3x MoM to arrive at 50k tons. Subsequently, EFERT’s DAP offtake in 10MCY24 increased by 30% YoY, arriving at 245k tons. 

•        FATIMA Group’s DAP sales went up by 4x YoY | 5x MoM, settling at 8k tons in Oct’24. Consequently, FATIMA’s DAP offtake contracted by 27% YoY to 45k tons in 10MCY24.

Inventory position

•        Towards end of Oct’24, the urea inventory stood at 869k tons vis-vis 622k tons in Sep’24. Whereas, DAP inventory settled at 332k tons in Oct’24.

Courtesy by AHL