NFDC reported February 2025 Urea offtakes at c.347,000 MT, down 36% YoY and 22% MoM. This takes the cumulative Urea offtake for the ongoing Rabi season (Oct’24 – Feb’25) to c.2.8mn MT, down just 2% YoY despite strong headwinds in the agriculture sector (removal of support price and lower water availability). DAP sales volume grew 4% YoY in the ongoing Rabi season to c.798,000 MT.

Key highlights:

§ FFC: Urea offtakes for February dropped 35% YoY to c.156,000 MT, taking the 2MCY25 offtake to c.506,000 MT, down 31%. FFC’s Urea market share improved 1ppt MoM to 45% in Feb’25. DAP offtakes for the company plummeted 32% MoM, albeit lower than industry sales dropping by 35% MoM. This takes FFC’s DAP market share to 62%, up 2ppt MoM.

§ EFERT: Urea sales were recorded at c.94,000 MT in February, down 52% YoY, against industry’s Urea sales decline of 31%. This takes 2MCY25 Urea sales to c.201,000 MT, down 51%. Urea’s market share improved by 3ppt MoM to 27%, still below its historical market share of around 35%. DAP offtakes for the company plummeted 86% YoY to c.3,000 MT vs 25,000 MT in Feb’24. Meanwhile, EFERT’s DAP market share dropped to 9% compared with 20% in Feb’24.

§ Closing Inventory: Urea closing inventory stood at c.536,000 MT, the highest for February since 2017. FFC contributed 12% to this number, while EFERT contributed 52%. Meanwhile, DAP inventory stood at c.160,000 MT, with FFC and EFERT contributing 37% and 35%, respectively.

Despite strong headwinds in the sector (removal of support price for wheat crop, weak farm incomes, and low water availability), cumulative fertilizer offtake for Rabi season is almost flat YoY (Urea down 2%, DAP up 4%). We maintain Neutral stance for our fertilizer coverage, with FFC and EFERT still offering a double-digit DY (FFC: 11%, EFERT: 12%).

Courtesy – IMS Research