The Pakistan fertilizer industry reported a 17% year-on-year increase in urea sales for September 2025, reaching 428,000 tons, according to a report by Topline Pakistan Research. However, this represents a significant 48% decrease compared to the previous month, due to a pre-buying trend observed in August 2025. This pre-buying was driven by ongoing discounts offered by certain manufacturers during the month of August.

Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) maintained an average discount of approximately Rs 260 per bag in both August and September 2025. However, part of this discount was rolled back in the first half of September. Meanwhile, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) provided discounts ranging from Rs 40 to Rs 70 per bag, according to our checks.

As a result, the total urea offtake for the first nine months of 2025 is expected to reach 4.20 million tons, which is an 8% decrease compared to 4.57 million tons during the same period in 2024, largely due to weak farm economics.

The closing inventory of urea is projected to be approximately 1.17 million tons in September 2025, up from 1.03 million tons in August 2025. Company-wise, EFERT holds the highest inventory at 539,000 tons, followed by FFC with 292,000 tons and FATIMA with 275,000 tons.

In terms of sales, EFERT is anticipated to see an 85% year-over-year increase, totaling 104,000 tons in September 2025, while FFC is expected to record urea sales of 236,000 tons, representing a 2% year-over-year increase. In contrast, the FATIMA group is projected to experience a 27% decline, with sales estimated at 50,000 tons.

Total DAP sales in September 2025 are expected to be 71,000 tons, representing a 47% year-over-year decrease and a 48% month-over-month decline, likely due to delays in the sowing season caused by flooding. For the first nine months of 2025, total DAP offtake is projected at 769,000 tons, a 17% year-over-year decrease. FFC is likely to record sales of 61,000 tons, while EFERT is expected to see 3,000 tons, with other companies contributing 7,000 tons in September 2025.

The closing inventory of DAP is anticipated to be around 378,000 tons in September 2025, compared to 316,000 tons in August 2025 and 383,000 tons in September 2024.

Outlook: Moving forward, we expect urea inventory levels to remain elevated due to floods, and it is expected to close December 2025 with a +1.4 million inventory level.