Pakistan urea sales in Nov 2025 are anticipated to clock in at 817k tons, up by 133% MoM and 25% YoY, driven by improved agricultural activity and discounts offered by select manufacturers. As per our checks, EFERT has maintained a discount of Rs300-350/bag during the month, while FFC has kept the average discount of Rs 80/bag, respectively, as revealed in a report released by Topline Pakistan Research.

However, in 11M2025, urea offtakes slightly declined to 5.37mn tons, down 4% YoY compared to 5.58mn tons in 11M2024, respectively.

§ The closing inventory of urea is expected to be around 1.05 million tons in Nov 2025, down from 1.42 million tons in Oct 2025.

Company-wise, Engro Fertilisers (EFERT) has the highest inventory of 520k tons, followed by FATIMA with 291k tons and Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) with 262k tons.

Among the companies, FFC is expected to record a massive increase of 133% MoM in urea sales to 387k tons in Nov 2025, while EFERT is expected to record a urea sales of 269k tons, up 121% MoM, followed by FATIMA of 125k tons, up 190% YoY in Nov 2025.

Total DAP sales during Nov-2025 are likely to be at ~216k tons, down 1% MoM and 14% YoY. In 11M2025, total DAP offtake is expected to clock in at 1.2mn ton, down by 17% YoY.

Company-wise data suggests that FFC and EFERT are estimated to record sales of 131k tons and 40k tons, respectively, in Nov 2025.

Closing inventory of DAP is likely to be around 215k tons in Nov 2025, compared to 408k tons in Oct 2025 and 307k tons in Nov 2024.

Outlook:

Going forward, we expect urea sales to remain robust in December 2025, despite seasonality. The inventory level is expected to be much lower (less than 1 million tons) than our initial estimates of 1.2 million tons.