Power generation went down by 8.2% YoY to 7,726 GWh (10,385 MW) during Dec’23, compared to 8,417 GWh (11,313 MW) during Dec’22. However, On MoM basis, generation increased by 2.4%. During 1HFY24, power generation increased by 0.6% YoY to 68,984 GWh (15,621 MW) compared to 68,570 GWh (15,528 MW) during 1HFY23.
During Dec’23, the power generation was 12% lower than the reference generation. Additionally, for the 2QFY24, there has been a 15.2% decline in generation compared to the reference generation. This decline is expected to result in higher capacity charges for the 2QFY24 QTA.
During Dec’23, fuel cost for power generation increased by 43.9% YoY to an average of PKR 10.13/KWh compared with an average cost of PKR 7.04/KWh during same period last year. On MoM basis fuel cost increased by 41.3%. The increase in fuel cost is primarily attributed to higher cost of generation of local coal (+68% YoY), RFO (+49% YoY), RLNG (+30% YoY), and gas (+39% YoY). Moreover, production from relatively economical sources decreased, with nuclear, wind, and solar production declining by 36% YoY, 29% YoY, and 11% YoY, respectively.
The load factor of CPHGC arrived at zero during Dec’23, due to subdued demand from power purchasers, we view. The overall load factor of imported coal-based power plants clocked in at 11% during the month as compared to 18% during the same period last year. The load factor of TEL and TNPL settled at 72% and 78% during Dec’23, respectively, and the overall load factor of local coal-based plants came at 67%.
The hydel-based generation surged by 8.1% YoY to 1,859 GWh during Dec’23. The increase in the generation has been witnessed, primarily because of 5% YoY surge in generation from WAPDA.
Power Generation down up by 8.2% YoY during Dec’23
The cost of power generation arrived at PKR 10.13/KWh during Dec’23 while including transmission losses and previous adjustments, the fuel cost grew to PKR 11.02/KWh. As a result of this, there is a projected rise of PKR 5.62/KWh in fuel charge adjustment which will be charged from customers with the Feb’23 bills. The YoY increase was witnessed during Dec’23 which was led by the following reasons;
The increase in fuel cost is primarily attributed to surge in fuel cost of local coal (+68% YoY), RFO (+49% YoY), RLNG (+30% YoY), and gas (+39% YoY) .
Rise in the generation of power from expensive fuel.
Production from relatively economical sources decreased, with nuclear, wind, and solar production declining by 36% YoY, 29% YoY, and 11% YoY, respectively.
Courtesy: AHL Research