According to a recent report by Topline Pakistan Research, Pakistan’s urea sales for May 2025 are projected to reach 418,000 tons, reflecting a 5% increase year-over-year compared to 400,000 tons in May 2024. This growth is seen as a positive indicator, especially with a significant recovery in sales expected, estimated at 67% month-on-month, attributed to the commencement of the Kharif season.
Despite the increase in May sales, the overall urea offtake for the period is anticipated to total 1.76 million tons, which marks a decline of 31% from the 2.55 million tons reported in the same period last year. The drop is primarily linked to ongoing challenges in farm economics and persistent water shortages affecting agricultural productivity. The report also indicates that closing inventory levels for urea are expected to climb to approximately 1.36 million tons by the end of May, an increase from 1.1 million tons in April. This inventory level is projected to be the highest recorded in the past 96 months.
Breaking down company performances, Engro Fertilisers (EFERT) is anticipated to hold the largest inventory at 619,000 tons and is expected to achieve a remarkable 85% year-over-year increase in urea sales, amounting to 142,000 tons for May 2025. This surge is largely attributed to a low base effect resulting from prior plant turnaround times and price disparities. EFERT has maintained a strategic price discount of Rs100-140 per bag since January 2025, which continues to attract buyers.
Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) is projected to report urea sales of 207,000 tons, representing a 28% decline compared to last year. Fatima, on the other hand, is expected to see a rise in sales, forecasting 54,000 tons, which is more than three times the sales recorded in May 2024. In terms of DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) sales, May 2025 is expected to yield around 94,000 tons, up 132% year-over-year but down slightly by 1% month-on-month.
The total DAP offtake is anticipated to reach 399,000 tons for the period, reflecting a 20% decrease year-over-year. FFC and EFERT are expected to contribute significantly to DAP sales, with estimates of 68,000 tons and 14,000 tons, respectively, while other companies are projected to collectively sell 12,000 tons. The closing inventory for DAP is likely to stand at 252,000 tons by the end of May 2025, an increase from 203,000 tons in April and 219,000 tons in May 2024. As the agricultural landscape continues to navigate economic challenges, these sales figures highlight the ongoing need for strategic pricing and inventory management among fertilizer companies in Pakistan.
