Topline Pakistan Research has analyzed the performance of the fertilizer industry in Pakistan for July 2025. The report reveals that urea sales are up 4% month-over-month (MoM) and down 19% year-over-year (YoY). The inventory stands at 1.28 million tons. Urea sales in July 2025 are expected to reach 608,000 tons, a decrease of 1% YoY compared to 612,000 tons in July 2024, primarily due to poor farm economics and the ongoing monsoon season. On a month-over-month basis, urea sales have dropped 19% following the conclusion of the Rabi season.

This will bring the total urea offtake for the year to 2.96 million tons, a decline of 19% YoY compared to 3.65 million tons in the previous year, mainly due to weak farm economics as mentioned earlier. The closing inventory of urea is projected to be around 1.28 million tons in July 2025, down from 1.32 million tons in June 2025.

Among the companies, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) has the highest inventory at 574,000 tons, followed by Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) with 330,000 tons, and Fatima Fertilizer with 306,000 tons. EFERT is expected to record a 16% YoY decrease in urea sales to 207,000 tons in July 2025. In contrast, FFC is forecasted to achieve urea sales of 273,000 tons, which represents a 10% YoY increase, while Fatima Fertilizer expects sales of 97,000 tons, up 4% YoY.

Total DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) sales for July 2025 are anticipated to be around 109,000 tons, reflecting a 33% YoY decline but a 1% MoM increase. For the year, DAP offtake is expected to reach 557,000 tons, down 21% YoY. The report suggests that FFC and EFERT are likely to record sales of 85,000 tons and 3,000 tons, respectively, with others contributing 21,000 tons in July 2025.

The closing inventory of DAP is expected to be around 276,000 tons in July 2025, compared to 323,000 tons in June 2025 and 166,000 tons in June 2024.

Outlook: Moving forward, we expect urea inventory levels to remain elevated, with projections indicating a closing inventory of +1.2mn tons by December 2025.