Topline Pakistan Research has released an optimistic report on the country’s cement industry, noting a strong start for dispatches in July 2025. An analyst from a research firm predicts that local cement dispatches are likely to increase by 11% year-over-year (YoY) in July 2025, signaling that FY26 is off to a positive start.

Local cement dispatches in Pakistan are expected to rise by 5% month-over-month (MoM), reaching between 2.65 and 2.75 million tons in July 2025. The anticipated YoY increase of 11% is primarily due to lower sales in July 2024, which were impacted by a significant pickup in June 2024 ahead of an expected rise in federal excise duty (FED) on cement bags and strikes by dealers.

Here are some key points from our analysis based on provisional numbers from the first 20 days of July:

– Local sales stand at 1.82 million tons, while our channel checks indicate that sales hover around approximately 2.2 to 2.3 million tons after 23 days of the month.
– The increase in local cement dispatches MoM is mainly attributed to pent-up demand from the previous month, which was affected by fewer working days due to the Eid holidays. However, recent channel checks suggest that sales may decrease by 2-3% due to floods in the northern region.
– Daily sales in July 2025 are projected to average around 120,000 tons, compared to 115,000 tons recorded in June 2025.
– Domestic sales for July 2025 are likely to reach between 2.65 and 2.75 million tons, compared to 2.46 million tons in July 2024.
– Exports in July 2025 are expected to surge by 79% YoY and by 13% MoM. Notably, DG Khan Cement (DGKC) and Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) exports are likely to rise by 89% and 28% MoM, respectively, while Lucky Cement (LUCK) exports may decline by 7% MoM.
– This growth would bring Pakistan’s total cement sales to approximately 3.71 million tons in July 2025, reflecting a 23% YoY increase and a 7% MoM increase.
– Total cement capacity utilization in July 2025 is estimated to reach 54%, up from 51% in June 2025 and 43% in July 2024.
– According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the average retail price of cement in July 2025 has decreased by 2% MoM in the North and by 1% MoM in the South. On a YoY basis, cement bag prices have dropped by 9% in the North, while in the South, they have increased by 4%.
– We anticipate a growth of 5% to 8% YoY in local dispatches as economic activities improve and monetary easing continues.