AHL Research Ltd projects Pakistan State Oil (PSO) to post profit after tax of PKR 20.54bn (EPS: PKR 43.8) in 1QFY27, up 119% YoY, driven by stronger MS (+25% YoY) and HSD (+12% YoY) volumes, higher ex‑depot prices, and inventory gains amid rising ex‑refinery prices.

Net sales are expected to rise 18% YoY to PKR 871.76bn, supported by higher volumes and petroleum product prices. Average MS and HSD prices climbed 32.5% YoY and 43.5% YoY to PKR 348.95/litre and PKR 385.56/litre, respectively.

The RLNG segment remains under pressure, with average DES price up to USD 11.09/mmbtu versus USD 8.01/mmbtu last year. PSO handled only three RLNG cargoes in the quarter, compared with 28 a year earlier, as geopolitical tensions disrupted July supplies.

Gross profit is projected at PKR 44.6bn, with a 5.12% margin, reflecting inventory gains. Finance costs are expected to rise 3% YoY to PKR 6.1bn due to greater reliance on short‑term borrowings.

AHL Research expects PSO’s earnings momentum to remain supported by robust fuel demand and pricing tailwinds despite RLNG headwinds.