Power generation went down by 23% YoY to 10,010 GWh (13,903 MW) during Apr’23, compared to 12,960 GWh (18,001 MW) during Apr’22. The is the highest YoY decline since available data (Jul’12). The decline in the generation was owed to lower generation from FO (-86% YoY), Wind (-31% YoY) Hydel (-22% YoY), Coal (-16% YoY), Nuclear (-15% YoY), Gas (-7% YoY), and RLNG (-4% YoY). This decline in power generation is triggered by the overall decline in economic activity across the country.

Major contributors during Apr’23 were RLNG (share: 24.2%), Nuclear (share: 19.1%), Hydel (share: 18.7%), Coal (share: 18.2%), Gas (share: 11.9%), Wind (share: 3.2%), FO (share: 2.2%), Solar (share: 1.3%), and Bagasse (share: 0.8%).

China Power Hub Generation generated zero electricity during Apr’23 due to the coal import issues. The plant has generated only 67 GWh during the last six months. Thar Energy Limited (TEL) started the generated electricity after the closure of two months. To recall, TEL was unavailable for generation due to transmission constraints on the back of the delay in the second transmission line between Thar and Matiari Converter Station.

The hydel-based generation declined by 22% YoY due to the low flow of water compared to last year, we view.

Fuel cost increased by 24.6% MoM during Apr’23

§ During Apr’23, fuel cost for power generation increased by 24.6% MoM to an average of PKR 10.24/KWh compared with an average cost of PKR 8.22/KWh during Mar’23. A MoM rise during Apr’23 was led by the following reasons;

o Hydel-based power generation decreased by 6% MoM.

o Nuclear-based power generation is also down by 4% MoM.

o FO-based generation increased by 5.5x MoM, a relatively expensive source of power generation.

o Coal-based cost of generation increased by 41% MoM.

o FO-based cost of generation also increased by 9% MoM.

Courtesy – AHL Research