Pakistan’s oil marketing sector posted a modest but encouraging recovery, with total petroleum product sales reaching 13.22 million tons during the first ten months of FY2025 (10MFY25), reflecting a 6% year-on-year (YoY) growth from 12.44 million tons in the same period last year.
The increase was largely driven by robust April 2025 performance, where petroleum sales jumped 32% YoY to 1.46 million tons, boosted by reduced domestic fuel prices, a clampdown on Iranian fuel smuggling, and a pickup in automobile and economic activity.
Product-Wise Highlights (April 2025):
High-Speed Diesel (HSD): Sales surged 33% YoY to 0.62 million tons.
Motor Spirit (MS/Petrol): Rose 24% YoY to 0.66 million tons.
Furnace Oil (FO): Tripled YoY to 0.08 million tons, driven by increased FO-based power generation as summer demand rose.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, total petroleum offtake in April increased by 20%, supported by the start of the harvesting season, greater demand for HSD, and rising power sector fuel needs. Specifically, MS, HSD, and FO sales rose 14%, 28%, and 55% MoM, respectively.
10MFY25 Cumulative Breakdown:
MS (Petrol): 6.17mn tons (↑ YoY)
HSD (Diesel): 5.60mn tons (↑ YoY)
FO: 0.60mn tons (↓ YoY)
Company-Wise Sales Overview (April 2025):
Pakistan State Oil (PSO): Sales grew 12% YoY to 0.62mn tons.
MS: ↑ 11%
HSD: ↑ 15%
FO: ↑ 15%
Attock Petroleum Limited (APL): Sales up 28% YoY to 0.13mn tons
WAFI (Shell): ↑ 23% YoY
HASCOL: ↑ 76% YoY
However, 10MFY25 cumulative sales show a mixed picture:
HASCOL: ↓ 3% YoY
PSO: ↓ 6% YoY
APL: ↓ 7% YoY
WAFI (Shell): ↓ 25% YoY
Market Share Shifts in 10MFY25:
PSO: Fell to 44.5% (from 50.1% in SPLY)
APL: Dropped to 8.8%
WAFI (Shell): Unchanged at 7.2%
HASCOL: Increased to 3.4% (from 2.5%)
GO (Gas & Oil Pakistan Ltd): Rose significantly to 10.2% (from 3.1%)
Other OMCs: Declined to 25.9% (↓ 1.2% YoY)
PDL Collection and Fiscal Target:
The Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection for 10MFY25 stands at PKR 926 billion, with a monthly average of PKR 93 billion. The federal government’s target for the full fiscal year is PKR 1,281 billion, requiring a monthly average of PKR 107 billion.
Outlook: The sector’s rebound, supported by favorable pricing and improved demand fundamentals, bodes well for the remainder of FY25. However, sustained recovery will hinge on controlling illicit fuel inflows and maintaining price competitiveness amid global oil volatility.
Courtesy: AHL Research
