Pakistan’s Urea sales in Sep-2021 are expected to clock in at 487k tons, up 24% YoY due to low base of 393K tons in Sep-2020 amidst delays in sowing of Rabi crop due to heavy rains.

However, the same is expected to decline by 25% MoM due to seasonal factors.

As a result, Urea sales in 9M2021 are expected to clock in at 4,656k tons compared to 4,213k tons in 9M2020, up 11% YoY.

Amongst the companies, Fatima Group is expected to post increase in Urea sales by 107% YoY followed by Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) 18% YoY, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) 13% YoY and Engro Fertilizer (EFERT) 10% YoY in Sep-2021.

Urea production in Sep-2021 is expected to decline by 26% YoY to 419k tons due to lower production by LNG-based plants. That said, Urea production in 9M2021 are anticipated to remain unchanged YoY at 4,514k tons.

This will take Urea’s closing inventory to around 119k tons.

Total DAP sales in Sep-2021 are anticipated to decline by 8% YoY to 211k tons, while up by 13% MoM. As a result, DAP sales are expected at 1,192k tons during 9M2021 compared to 1,370k tons in 9M2020, down 13% YoY.

Company wise data suggests, FFBL and EFERT are likely to record sales of 98k tons and 52k tons respectively, followed by FFC’s sales of 22k tons.

FFBL’s DAP production is expected at 72k tons, taking closing inventory of DAP to around 356k tons.

Courtesy – AHCML Research