According to AHL Research, Pakistan’s headline inflation is expected to rise to 9.04% year-on-year in October 2026, up from 6.24% in the same month last year, largely due to a low-base effect and broad-based price increases across major economic sectors. The brokerage estimates monthly inflation at 0.6%, driven by higher transport, housing, food, and restaurant costs.

AHL Research noted that inflationary pressures remain visible across key categories, with notable increases expected in transport, housing, communication, clothing, education, and healthcare. The research house also projects core inflation (NFNE) at 8.0% YoY in October 2026, while average inflation for the first four months of FY27 is likely to reach 9.9%, compared with 4.8% in the corresponding period last year.

The report said rising energy costs, higher petroleum prices, increased electricity charges, and firmer food prices are expected to remain the main drivers of inflation in the near term.