Key takeaways from the SBP Governor’s speech at PSX today are as follows;
- The current level of financial inclusion stands at 64%.The target is to increase financial inclusion to 75% by 2028.
- Reserves are now projected to exceed USD 14bn by Jun’25.
- The current account is expected to post a substantial surplus for the year, marking a turnaround from deficit of USD 1.7bn recorded last year.
- Remittances for Mar’25 are expected at USD 4.1bn, taking 9MFY25 growth to 33% YoY.
- Foreign debt repayment obligations stand at USD 26bn for FY25, out of which USD 16bn is expected to be rolled over or refinanced (including USD 12.4bn+ already arranged), reducing actual repayment pressure to around USD 10bn. Of this USD 10bn repayment, USD 8bn has already been repaid.
- Economic activity has shown signs of revival.
- If agricultural growth had matched last year’s performance, the country’s GDP growth would have reached 4.2%.
- However, due to a weaker-than-expected agricultural season, GDP growth is now projected to be 2.5–3% for FY25.
Courtesy- AHL Research