§  Pakistan Urea sales in Jun-2024 is expected to clock in at 483k tons, down 21% YoY compared to 610k tons in Jun-2023.  However, Urea sales are expected to be up 21% MoM amidst the continuation of Kharif crops sowing.

§  Urea sales in 1H2024 are expected to clock in at 3,038K tons compared to 3,101k tons in 1H2023, down 2% YoY.

§  This is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to be around 474k tons in Jun-2024 vs 215k tons in Jun-2023 and 368K tons in May-2024. The inventory level of urea is likely to be the highest in 37 months.

§  Among the companies, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is expected to record YoY decrease of 26% to 155K tons in Jun-2024, mainly due to closure of its Enven plant for scheduled maintenance. To highlight, the plant resumed its operation on Jun 18, 2024.

§  Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to record sales of 240K tons down 13% YoY, followed by Fatima Group of 42K tons down 44% YoY, and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) of 18K tons down 13% YoY in Jun-2024.

§  Total DAP sales during Jun-2024 is anticipated to be around 122k tons, up 138% YoY due to low base effect, we believe. This takes 1H2024 DAP sales to 544k tons, up 5% YoY.

§  Company wise data suggests, FFBL and EFERT are likely to record sales of 81k tons and 31k tons respectively, followed by FFC’s sales of 6k tons in Jun-2024.

§  Closing inventory of DAP is likely to be around 167k tons in Jun-2024 compared to 275k tons in Jun-2023 and 117K tons in May-2024.

Courtesy – Topline Pakistan Research