According to AHCML Research, recent data from the National Fertiliser Development Corporation (NFDC) indicates a significant surge in fertiliser off-take, with December 2025 closing with total sales reaching 1,752k tons. This marks a remarkable 35% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 30% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Cumulatively, fertiliser sales for the calendar year 2025 have reached 10.0 million tons, a slight 1% improvement over the previous year, highlighting a fragile recovery in the market.

The resurgence in urea demand contributed notably to the December figures, driven largely by manufacturers’ aggressive discounting aimed at reducing excess inventory. This approach not only helped stabilise sales but also brought them closer to last year’s levels, despite the challenging economic landscape for farmers due to rising input costs and the removal of support prices.

**Product Performance Breakdown:**

– **Urea:** Off-take for urea witnessed a striking increase of 65.5% MoM and 36.8% YoY, totalling 1,356k tons in December. This uptick brought cumulative urea sales for CY25 to 6.73 million tons, representing a modest 2% YoY increase. The robust recovery observed in December underscores a resilient demand amidst ongoing economic pressures on the agricultural sector.

– **DAP:** In contrast, DAP off-take took a sharp downturn, falling to 80k tons in December, a decline of 67% MoM and 42% YoY. Total DAP sales for the year amounted to 1,339k tons, a 18% YoY reduction, indicating continued sluggish demand.

– **CAN, NP & NPK:** CAN sales surged by 142% MoM and 134% YoY, primarily driven by peak seasonal demand during the Rabi season. On the other hand, NP sales fell 46% MoM and 44% YoY, attributed to decreased demand from farmers, signalling challenges in that segment.

As we move into the new year, industry observers will be keen to monitor how these trends evolve and whether the modest recovery can be sustained in 2026.