Power generation decreased by 1% YoY to 13,715 GWh (19,048 MW) during June ’23, compared to 13,876 GWh (19,272 MW) SPLY. The YoY decline in the power generation was owed to lower generation from FO (-49%), Wind (-26%), RLNG (-25%), and Gas (-21%). Our view is that the decline in power generation is triggered by the overall decline in economic activity across the country and lower domestic consumption due to the rise in electricity tariffs.

Major contributors during Jun’23 were Hydel (share: 30.1%), RLNG (share: 18.6%), Coal (share: 17.8%), Nuclear (share: 13.5%), Gas (share: 8.5%), FO (share: 5.4%), Wind (share: 4.4%), Solar (share: 0.8%), and Bagasse (share: 0.5%).

China Power Hub Generation generated 242GWh (Load Factor: 25%) during June ’23 compared to 534GWh (Load Factor: 56%) during June ’22. The load factor of the plant remained low because of coal import issues. Thar Energy Limited (TEL)’s load factor increased to 84% during Jun’23 (May’23: 58%), and the plant generated 200 GWh during Jun’23. To recall, due to transmission constraints, TEL was unavailable from Feb’23 to Mar’23 for power generation.

The total hydel-based generation increased by 23% YoY due to a 71% YoY rise from Karot Hydro and a 52% YoY rise in generation from WAPDA.

Power Generation was down by 9.5% YoY during FY23.

Power generation went down 9.5% YoY to 129,591 GWh (14,793 MW) during FY23, compared to 143,193 GWh (16,346 MW) SPLY. The YoY decline in the power generation was owed to lower generation from FO (-62%), Coal (-22%), RLNG (-17%), Wind (-11%), and Gas (-2%). The decline in power generation can be attributed to a combination of factors, with two significant drivers being the overall decline in economic activity across the country and the increase in electricity tariffs leading to reduced domestic consumption.

Major contributors during FY23 were Hydel (share: 28.0%), Nuclear (share: 18.6%), Coal (share: 16.0%), RLNG (share: 17.1%), Coal (share: 16.0%), Gas (share: 11.2%), FO (share: 3.9%), Wind (share: 3.2%), Solar (share: 0.8%), and Bagasse (share: 0.7%).

During FY23, power generation from furnace oil, one of the most expensive sources, witnessed a substantial decline of 62% YoY. Coal-based power generation decreased by 22% YoY due to coal import and transmission constraints issues during the year. However, Nuclear-based power generation during FY23 increased by 32% YoY due to the addition of the Kanupp-3 plant to the system; the plant started supplying electricity to the national grid from March ’22.

Generation from Neelam Jhelum decreased by 97% YoY during FY23; the plant has been unavailable for generation since August ’22 due to technical issues.

Courtesy – AHL Research