Pakistan Power Sector – generation in Apr’24 fell by 20.4%

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Power generation went down by 13.7% YoY to arrive at 8,639 GWh (11,612 MW) during Apr’24, compared to 10,010 GWh (13,903 MW) during SPLY. However, on MoM basis power generation increased by 7.7%. In 10MFY24, power generation decreased by 2.4% YoY to 101,089 GWh (13,765 MW) compared to 103,592 GWh (14,198 MW) in SPLY.

During Apr’24, the actual power generation was 20.4% lower than the reference generation. Additionally, a projected 10% decline from the reference level for both May and June 2024 will lead to a higher QTA for 4QFY24 of PKR 3.41/KWh, which will be charged in the 2QFY25.

In Apr’24, fuel cost for power generation declined by 10.1% YoY to an average of PKR 9.21/KWh compared with an average cost of PKR 10.24/KWh during SPLY. The fall in fuel cost is primarily attributed to lower cost of generation from RLNG (down 7.2% YoY). Moreover, the generation of power from relatively economical sources increased, with hydel and nuclear increasing by 10.6% YoY, and 6.6% YoY respectively. However, it is pertinent to note that, on MoM basis fuel cost rose by 10.8%.

The load factor of CPHG power plants arrived at zero during Apr’24, due to subdued demand from power purchaser, we view. The load factor of TEL and TNPL settled at 61% and 64% during Apr’24, respectively, and the overall load factor of local coal-based plants came at 46%.

The hydel-based generation rose by 11% YoY to 2,070 GWh during Apr’24. This is  on the back of generation from the Neelam Jhelum hydel plant, which generated 401 GWh in the month of Apr’24 as compared to zero generation in SPLY.

Courtesy – AHL Research

 
 

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