Power generation went up by 3.6% YoY (-16.4% MoM) to 13,339 GWh (18,527 MW) during Sep’23, compared to 12,878 GWh (17,886 MW) during Sep’22. During 1QFY24 power generation was also up by 7.4% YoY to 44,137 GWh (19,990 MW) compared to 41,081 GWh (18,606 MW) during 1QFY23. The rise in power generation during 1QFY24 is triggered by the overall rise in economic activity across the country, we view.
Power generation during Sep’23 (including transmission losses) remained 3.1% lower (12,922 GWh, 17,947 MW) than the reference generation (13,333 GWh, 18,518 MW). While during 1QFY24, power generation (including transmission losses) remained 1.1% higher (42,782 GWh, 19,376 MW) than the reference generation (42,301 GWh, 19,158 MW). The difference between the actual and reference generation will result in a tariff decrease in terms of Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) for 1QFY24.
Major contributors during Sep’23 were Hydel (share: 37.5%), Nuclear (share: 17.1%), RLNG (share: 16.0%), Local Coal (share: 11.1%), Gas (share: 7.5%), Imported Coal (4.8%), Wind (share: 3.1%), FO (share: 1.8%), Solar (share: 0.6%), and Bagasse (share: 0.3%).
CPHGC’s Load Factor remained at 8% during Sep’23 compared to 21% during Sep’22. The load factor of the plant remained low because of lower demand from power purchaser, we view. The overall load factor of imported coal-based power plants remained 19% during the month compared to 26% during same period last year. The load factor of TEL and TNPL remained at 78% and 74% during Sep’23, respectively, and the overall load factor of local coal-based plants remained at 78%.
The hydel-based generation increased by 14% YoY to 5,009 GWh during Sep’23. The uptick in generation has been witnessed due to the resumption of Neelam Jhelum plant. To recall, the plant was unavailable for generation from Jul’22 to Jul’23 amid the collapse of the tunnel due to floods.
Cost of Power Generation decreased by 25.2% YoY during Sep’23
The cost of power generation decreased by 25.2% YoY to PKR 7.42/KWh (PKR 7.62/KWh including transmission losses) during Sep’23, but still higher than the reference cost of PKR 7.07/KWh. On this basis, there is a projected rise of PKR 0.55/KWh in fuel charge adjustment in Oct’23. The YoY decline was witnessed during Sep’23 which was led by the following reasons;
o Local and imported coal-based cost of generation decreased by 9% YoY, and 35% YoY, respectively. The decline in imported coal-based is witnessed due to a 51% YoY decline in coal prices.
o RLNG-based cost of generation also declined by 7% YoY to PKR 24.19/KWh due to 3% YoY decline in RLNG prices to PKR 3,822/mmbtu.
o Hydel-based generation increased by 14% YoY.
Courtesy – AHL Research