Pakistan power generation at 47 months low

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•        Power generation went down by 8.1% YoY to 7,130 GWh (10,244 MW) during Feb’24, compared to 7,755 GWh (11,541 MW) during Feb’23. On MoM basis power generation declined by 14.2%. During 8MFY24, power generation decreased by 0.5% YoY to 84,427 GWh (14,417 MW) compared to 84,840 GWh (14,547 MW) in SPLY.

•        During Feb’24, the actual power generation was 14.6% lower than the reference generation. This decline in generation is expected to result in higher capacity charges for the 4QFY24 QTA.

•        During Feb’24, fuel cost for power generation increased by 8.5% YoY to an average of PKR 8.70/KWh compared with an average cost of PKR 8.01/KWh during SPLY. The increase in fuel cost is primarily attributed to higher cost of generation from local coal (+50% YoY), gas (+23% YoY), and imported coal (+3.3% YoY). Moreover, the generation of power from relatively economical sources decreased, with hydel and nuclear declining by 13.9% YoY, and 11.8% YoY. However, it is pertinent to note that, on MoM basis fuel cost declined by 36.9%.

•        The load factor of CPHGC arrived at zero during Feb’24, due to subdued demand from power purchaser, we view. The overall load factor of imported coal-based power plants clocked  in at 4% during the month as compared to 11% during the same period last year. The load factor of TEL and TNPL settled at 17% and 74% during Feb’24, respectively, and the overall load factor of local coal-based plants came at 54%.

•        The hydel-based generation fell by 14% YoY to 1,766 GWh during Feb’24. The decrease in the generation has been witnessed, primarily because of 12% YoY dip in generation from WAPDA.

Courtesy – AHL Research

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