Pakistan oil sales are likely to be down by 7% YoY in Dec-2021 primarily driven by decline in sales of Furnace Oil (FO). Excluding FO, same are expected to up by 1% YoY.

FO sales are down by 53% YoY to 112k tons mainly due to lower FO based power generation during the month of Dec-2021.

High Speed Diesel (HSD) sales are also expected to decline by 2% YoY and 25% MoM. While Motor Spirit (MS) sales are likely to increase by 4% YoY and 1% MoM.

In 1HFY22, Oil sales are expected to grow by 14% YoY, where FO, HSD and MS volumes have increased by 17% YoY, 16% YoY, and 10% YoY respectively amidst improvement in economic activity and uptick in car/bike sales.

Among the listed companies, Attock Petroleum (APL) was only able to increase its volumetric sales by 13% YoY to 143k tons.

Hascol Petroleum (HASCOL) is expected to post decline in oil sales by 59% YoY followed by Pakistan State Oil (PSO) of 6% YoY and Shell Pakistan (SHEL) of 2% YoY.

Market share of PSO, SHEL and APL has increased by 1ppts each to 46%, 9%, and 10% respectively during Dec-2021.

Where as, HASCOL lost its market share from 5% in Dec-2020 to 2% in Dec-2021 as sales in all segments reported decline.

Courtesy – AHCML Research