Pakistan OMC sector sales up by 4% YoY during 9MFY25

Pakistan’s OMC sector saw a 5% YoY growth in petroleum sales, reaching 1.22 million tons in March ’25.
The YoY growth in sales is attributable to several factors: i) higher demand driven by increased intercity commuting for Eid holidays, ii) a boost in seasonal economic activity during Eid and Ramadan, iii) decline in petroleum prices, encouraging consumption, iv) curtailment of smuggled petroleum from Iran, and v) jump in automobile sales.
HSD sales increased 5% year over year, settling at 0.49 million tons in March ’25, compared to 0.43 million tons in SPLY. The increase in HSD offtake is attributed to higher demand following a 9.7% year-over-year decline in HSD prices.
Meanwhile, MS dispatches inched up 1% year over year, clocking in at 0.58mn tons in March ’25, given that MS prices dwindled by 8.6% year over year.
FO sales volumes climbed up by 22% YoY, clocking in at 0.05mn tons.
On a MoM basis, petroleum sales improved by 7% in Mar’25, on account of: i) increased travel due to festive season ii) fewer days in February compared to March, iii) rise in petroleum consumption amid lower price of MS and HSD, and iv) an increase in the reliance on FO-based power generation, we view.
On a MoM basis, the offtake of MS, HSD and FO improved by 4%, 14% and 2% MoM, respectively, in Mar’25.
On a cumulative basis, total petroleum product sales for 9MFY25 increased by 4% YoY, clocking in 11.76 million tons, compared to 11.34 million tons in SPLY. Product-wise, MS, HSD and FO showcased growth. The volumetric sales for MS, HSD, and FO were 5.5 million tons, 4.98 million tons, and 0.51 million tons, respectively.

PSO’s sales declined by 14% YoY in Mar’25

On company-wise basis, the sales of PSO declined by 14% YoY, clocking in at 0.51mn tons in Mar’25.
PSO’s offtake of MS, HSD and FO tumbled by 21%, 12% and 27% YoY, respectively.
Similarly, the offtake of APL improved by 2% YoY to 0.11mn tons.
The dispatches of SHEL declined by 7% YoY while HASCOL’s dispatches surged by 95% YoY.
In 9MFY25, sales of PSO, APL and SHEL’s declined by 7%, 10% and 18% YoY, respectively.
HASCOL stood out as an outlier, posting 6% sales growth YoY in 9MFY25.
PSO’s market share in 9MFY25 significantly declined by 5% to 45% vis-à-vis 50% in SPLY.
The market share of APL decreased by 1% arriving at 9% YoY in 9MFY25.
On the other hand, the market share of SHEL remained same in 9MFY25.
HASCOL’s market share in 9MFY25 declined to 9% (10% in SPLY).
The market share of Gas and Oil Pakistan Ltd (GO) increased significantly to 10% in 9MFY25 compared to only 3% in SPLY.
Meanwhile, the market share of other OMCs witnessed a decline of 1% to arrive at 26% in 9MFY25.
With this, the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection in 9MFY25 stands at ~PKR 819bn (monthly average of ~PKR 91bn).
To recall, the Federal Government has set a PDL target of PKR 1,281bn (monthly average of PKR 107bn) for FY25.