Pakistan’s Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.28mn tons in Dec 2024. This represents a 3% YoY increase, driven by lower petroleum product prices, macroeconomic stabilization, and a decline in smuggling.

§  Total sales for 1HFY25 totaled at 8mn tons, a 4% YoY rise compared to 7.7mn tons in 1HFY24.

§  Excluding Furnace Oil (FO) sales in Dec 2024 were 1.2mn tons, reflecting a 7% YoY rise while a 20% MoM decline. For 1HFY25, Ex-FO sales totalled 7.7mn tons, an 8% YoY rise.

§  Product wise: Motor Spirit (MS) sales saw a 1% YoY and 15% MoM decline to 566k tons in Dec 2024. This was primarily due to the onset of the winter season, which reduces economic activity sequentially.

§  High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales rise 12% YoY while down 27% MoM to 573K tons. Reduced prices drove the YoY growth.

§  FO sales for Dec 2024 fell by 48% YoY while up 12% MoM to 41K tons.

§  Company wise: Among the listed entities, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales clocked in at 111K tons in Dec 2024, a 14% YoY and 15% MoM decline primarily driven by 89% YoY and 62% MoM fall in FO sales. APL has a market share of 8.71% in MS and 9.48% in HSD, up 75bps and 96bps, respectively, from Nov 2024.

§  Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a 4% YoY and 28% MoM fall to 572K tons in Dec 2024. PSO’s market share in HSD and MS clocked in at 45.99% and 40.54%, down 845bps and 409bps MoM, respectively, on Dec 24. PSOs overall market share has fallen from 51% in Nov 2024 to 45% in Dec 2024, primarily led by a decrease in HSD market share.

§  Shell Pakistan (SHEL) saw a 5% YoY rise but an 8% MoM fall to 95K tons. HASCOL sales clocked in at 43k tons, up 59% YoY and 25% MoM.

§ The Government has set a Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection target of Rs1.28trn for FY25, of which Rs557bn (43%) has been collected in 1HFY25, we believe.

Courtesy – Topline Pakistan Research