Pakistan’s urea sales in September 2024 are expected to be 365k tons, down 35% year over year compared to 564k tons in September 2023. According to our channel checks, the significant decline is attributed to higher Urea prices and weaker farmer economics.

Due to seasonal factors, § Urea sales are also expected to be down 35% MoM.

§  Urea sales in 9M2024 is expected to clock in at 4.6mn tons compared to 5.0mn tons in 9M2023, down 8% YoY.

§  This is likely to take the closing inventory of Urae to around 635k tons in September 2024, up from 406K tons in August 2024. The inventory level of Urae is likely to be the highest in the last 45 months.

§  Among the companies, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is expected to record a major YoY decrease of 71% to 56K tons in September 2024. EFERT’s sales are affected by higher urea prices compared to its peers.

§  Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to record Urea sales of 199K tons (down 13% YoY) in Sep-2024, followed by FATIMA sales of 69K tons (down 20% YoY), and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) of 32K tons (up 52% YoY), respectively.

§  Total DAP sales during Sep-2024 are anticipated to be around 143k tons, up 35% YoY and 61% MoM. This takes 9M2024 DAP sales to 940k tons, down 6% YoY.

§ Company-wise data suggests that FFBL and EFERT are likely to record sales of 79k tons and 15k tons, respectively, followed by FFC’s sales of 7k tons in September 2024.

§  Closing inventory of DAP is likely to be around 365k tons in Sep-2024 compared to 29k tons in Sep-2023 and 232K tons in Aug-2024. The inventory level of DAP is expected to be the highest in 20 months.

Courtesy – Topline Pakistan Research