Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Nov 2025 is expected to clock in at 6.5-7.0% YoY, up from 6.25% in Oct 2025 and 4.86% in Nov 2024. On a MoM basis, inflation for Nov 2025 is projected at +0.8%, according to Topline Pakistan Research.

The MoM increase was driven by a 1.52% rise in food prices due to the aftereffects of floods and the closure of the Afghan border, which affected food supplies.

Key contributors to food inflation are Onions (59%), Chicken (16%), Meat (15%), and fresh vegetables (12%). However, Tomatoes were down significantly by 56% mainly due to a surge seen last month, which offset the major rise in other segments.

There was a 0.79% rise in the Housing, Water, Electricity, and Gas category. This is mainly due to a 2.83% MoM rise in electricity charges. The -Rs1.8881/kWh Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) applied during Aug–Oct has not been carried forward into Nov 2025, as no QTA has been announced for the new quarter. While Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) of -Rs. 0.4812/kWh was reported in Nov 2025 (vs. Rs. 0.0796/kWh in Oct 2025).

The transport segment is expected to fall by a mere 0.05% MoM, mainly due to a 0.1% fall in motor fuels, with petrol falling 1% and high-speed diesel (HSD) rising 0.8%.

§  Real Rate in Nov 2025: With inflation expectations of 6.5-7.0% for Nov 2025, real rates will surge to 400-450bps, higher than Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300bps.

§  Key Risks: A significant shift in global commodity prices remains a major variable that could alter the inflation trajectory.