During April 2025, Urea offtakes came in at c. 251,000 MT, down 24% YoY, taking the 4MCY25 Urea offtakes to c.1.35mn MT vs 2.15mn MT SPLY, down 37% YoY. The government abolished support prices for major crops, including wheat and sugar, and refrained from procuring wheat during this harvest season resulting in plunging prices and dampened farm incomes. Wheat prices during this harvest season remained around PKR2,300-2,500/40Kg, down from PKR2,600-2,800/40Kg during the last harvest.
Key highlights:
§ FFC: The Company reported Urea sales of c. 108,000 MT, down 52% YoY. This takes 4MCY25 Urea offtakes to c. 0.6mn MT vs 1mn SPLY, down 38%. FFC Urea market share during the month reduced to 43%, vs. 68% in Apr’24, when EFERT went through a major plant turnaround. Meanwhile, DAP offtakes dropped 34% YoY to c. 54,000 MT with market share of 56%.
§ EFERT: Urea market share of EFERT has improved substantially, which came in at 32% vs 23% last year. We believe this to be sustainable. Urea offtakes in April were recorded at c. 81,000 MT, improving 7% YoY. Meanwhile, DAP Offtakes came in at 31,000 MT, up 3x YoY. This takes the 4MCY25 number to c. 56,000 MT, which is down 40% YoY. EFERT holds a DAP market share of 23%, almost flat YoY.
§ Closing Inventory: Urea inventory has crossed 1mn MT for the first time since May 2020, reported at 1.1mn MT in April 2025. FFC and EFERT contribute 26% and 44%, respectively.
Industry’s Urea inventory is building up sharply due to weak farm economics and continued production. In 2017, when the ECC allowed export of Urea, 12-month average closing inventory of Urea was c. 1.2mn MT. Presently, the 12-month average Urea inventory is close to 0.6mn MT, indicating that it may be too early for the government to allow Urea exports. Moreover, this time the inventory is concentrated with one player (EFERT contributing 44%), making it less compelling for the government to allow exports to the industry. However, if exports are allowed, EFERT would benefit the most.
April 2025 – Sales volume ‘000 MT
Apr’25 | Apr’24 | YoY | Mar-25 | MoM | 4MCY25 | 4MCY24 | YoY | |
Urea Offtakes | ||||||||
FFC | 108 | 224 | -52% | 188 | -42% | 646 | 1,043 | -38% |
EFERT | 81 | 75 | 7% | 59 | 38% | 341 | 698 | -51% |
Others | 62 | 29 | 115% | 60 | 2% | 364 | 414 | -12% |
Industry | 251 | 328 | -24% | 307 | -18% | 1,350 | 2,155 | -37% |
DAP Offtakes | ||||||||
FFC | 54 | 81 | -34% | 27 | 101% | 142 | 268 | -47% |
EFERT | 31 | 10 | 211% | 8 | 279% | 56 | 93 | -40% |
Others | 10 | 1 | 594% | 14 | -25% | 47 | 30 | 59% |
Industry | 95 | 93 | 3% | 49 | 96% | 245 | 391 | -37% |
Source: NFDC, IMS Research
Courtesy- IMS Research
