AHL Research Ltd reports that urea sales rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.87 million tons in 3QCY26, while DAP sales fell 15.6 percent to 287,000 tons. On a cumulative basis, 9MCY26 urea offtakes increased 4 percent to 4.38 million tons, led by FFC (+10 percent) and FATIMA (+8 percent), while EFERT declined 4 percent. The modest growth was driven by a surge in September sales after monsoon disruptions and transporter strikes earlier in the quarter.

DAP demand remained weak, down 3 percent in 9MCY26 to 773,000 tons, as elevated international prices continued to push farmers toward cheaper nitrogen fertilizers.

Company outlook:

• EFERT is expected to post earnings of PKR 9.28 billion (EPS 6.95), up 60 percent year on year, with a dividend of PKR 6.60 per share. Urea volumes rebounded strongly, lifting market share to 37 percent, while DAP offtake rose 168 percent year on year.
• FFC earnings are projected at PKR 20.55 billion (EPS 14.28), up 6 percent year on year, supported by higher other income and a lower tax rate. Urea volumes fell, reducing market share to 40 percent, while margins compressed as phosphoric acid prices rose faster than DAP. A dividend of PKR 10.75 per share is expected.

AHL Research Ltd notes that sector dynamics remain shaped by global price trends, farm economics, and supply disruptions.