AHL Research has reviewed the performance of the Pakistan E&Ps Sector in light of the production update & result preview for 2QFY26. Experts believed that during 2QFY26, Oil and gas production declined by 1.4% and 4.2% YoY, respectively.
The contraction in hydrocarbon output stems from forced curtailments at major production blocks amid weaker gas demand. Key oil fields, including Mardankhel (-48.1% YoY), Maramzai (-23.9% YoY), Bettani (-72.0% YoY), and Adhi (-42.2% YoY), recorded production declines during 2QFY26. Dhok Sultan also posted a 72.0% YoY drop due to ATA, while Sono registered a 25.8% YoY decline.
In terms of gas production, key fields, including Qadirpur (-26.6% YoY), Sui (-16.4% YoY), and the TAL Block (-5.0% YoY), recorded declines due to forced curtailments. In addition, OGDCL’s KPD–TAY plant reported lower output due to ATA. Uch also registered an 11.7% YoY decline in 2QFY26, driven by ATA and weaker power demand.
Discoveries and Production Activity
During the quarter, OGDC and PPL made a major oil and gas discovery at Baragzai X-01 in the Nashpa Block, District Kohat (KPK), across the Kingriali, Datta, Samana Suk, and Shinwari formations. OGDC, the operator with a 65% working interest, and PPL with a 30% stake, reported total discoveries of 9,480 bopd of oil and 23.90 mmcfd of gas, translating into an EPS impact of PKR 4.53/share for OGDC and PKR 3.31/share for PPL, respectively, positive for both E&P giants.
Additionally, OGDC received the sixth of twelve equal monthly interest instalments of PKR 7.725bn from PHL, lifting cumulative collections to PKR 46bn (PKR 10.70/share). The company also received PKR 50.1bn (PKR 11.65/share) from Uch Power (Private) Limited against outstanding receivables, reflecting the government’s ongoing efforts to resolve energy sector circular debt.
Result Previews:
OGDC: Earnings of PKR 9.00/share expected in 2QFY26
OGDC is expected to report 2QFY26 earnings of PKR 35.1bn (EPS: PKR 8.17), down 15% YoY, mainly due to an 13% YoY decline in oil prices following the plug and abandonment of the Jakhro North-1 well and Khatian-1.
Net sales are projected to fall 4% YoY, reflecting weaker gas output, while oil production improved. Gas production declined across key fields, including Uch (-11.7% YoY due to ATA and weak power demand), Qadirpur (-26.6% YoY), TAL (-5.0% YoY), and KPD (-2.2% YoY). On the oil side, Nashpa output rose 2.1% YoY, while TAL and KPD blocks recorded strong growth of 14.2% YoY (13,331 bopd – not stake adjusted) and 19.3% YoY (10,240 bopd), respectively, though TAL remained below potential due to curtailments.
Exploration expenses are expected to rise 53% YoY. In comparison, other income may decline 45% YoY amid lower finance income in a falling rate environment, partly offset by the remaining TFC loss unwind (PKR 0.85/share). The company is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 3.50 per share, taking the half-year payout to PKR 7.00/share.
PPL: Bottom line to clock in at PKR 7.64/share in 2QFY26
In the financial results 2QFY26, Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) is expected to report a net profit of PKR 20,796mn (EPS: PKR 7.64), compared to PKR 27,336mn (EPS: PKR 10.05) in 2QFY25, reflecting a 23.9% YoY decline.
The earnings decline was driven by a 13.2% YoY drop in oil prices, despite stable gas and oil production. Among key gas fields, Kandhkot output rose 21.1% YoY on a low base, while Sharf and Nashpa increased 10.5% YoY and 14.5% YoY, respectively. On the oil side, Nashpa production edged up 2.1% YoY, while TAL Block output climbed 14.2% YoY to 13,331 bopd (not stake-adjusted, though remaining below potential due to curtailments). In addition, other income is expected to fall sharply to PKR 2.5bn (-71% YoY), mainly due to one-off gains booked in SPLY.
A decline in realised prices is expected to reduce Net Sales by 7% YoY. In addition to the results, we expect the company to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.00/share for 2QFY26 (payout of 26%).
MARI: Profitability to arrive at PKR 9.16/share in 2QFY26
Mari Energies Limited (MARI) is expected to post 2QFY26 earnings of PKR 10,992mn (EPS: PKR 9.16), compared to PKR 11,168mn (EPS: PKR 9.30) in 2QFY25, reflecting a 2% YoY decrease.
Among MARI’s major gas fields, HRL recorded a 2.8% YoY decline in 2QFY26 due to ATA at FFC’s plant, resulting in lower incremental volumes for the quarter. Goru B production remained stable, though the reported figures reflect only two months of the quarter. Meanwhile, output from Shewa was ramped up sharply to 53 mmcfd (up 102% QoQ). Operating costs are estimated sharply at PKR 9.9bn (-39% YoY) due to one-off items recorded in SPLY.
POL: Net profit to settle at PKR 20.14/share in 2QFY26
Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) is expected to report a profit after tax of PKR 5,716 mn (EPS: PKR 20.14/share), reflecting a 25% YoY decline. Net sales are projected to decrease by 4% YoY, primarily due to an 13.2% YoY decline in average realised oil prices. Additionally, we expect the company to announce a cash dividend of PKR 27 per share in 2QFY26, taking the cumulative payout for 1HFY26 to 70%.
