Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC) is scheduled to release its 3QFY24E earnings on April 29th, where we expect the company to post NPAT of PkR42.67n (EPS: PkR9.93), down by 42%/34% on a QoQ/YoY basis. The said decline in PAT on a quarterly basis is due to lower average oil prices (down 4.3%QoQ) and reduced FX gains amid an appreciating domestic exchange rate during the period (PkR/US$ parity: down 1.3%QoQ).

Regarding hydrocarbon production, company’s oil and gas output is estimated to increase by 4%/12%QoQ, reaching 34.3kbpd/755mmcfd during the quarter, respectively. Recovery in production was primarily driven by significant increases in gas output, particularly at fields such as Uch (+58mmcfd QoQ) and Qadirpur (+21mmcfd QoQ). With regards to oil, production experienced a modest rebound by over 3%QoQ, reaching 34.3k bpd, however, lower average oil prices negated the said effects. In summary, we expect 9MFY24E earnings to end at PkR166bn (EPS: 38.60/sh), largely unchanged on a YoY basis. Alongside the earnings, we expect the company to announce a cash dividend of PkR2.5/sh, taking total dividends during the nine month to PkR6.60/sh (vs. 5.80/sh SPLY). 

Courtesy – AKD Research