Lucky Cement Limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 6,642 million (EPS: PKR 4.53) for 4QFY25, reflecting a decrease of 30% YoY. Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 32,713 million, up 17% YoY, supported by higher retention prices.

Gross margins are estimated at 38.13%, up 5.7% YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies. The average price of a 50kg cement bag rose 11.62% YoY to 1,412 in June 2025, up from 1,265 in June 2024.

Coal prices averaged USD 95.56/ton during 3QFY25, showing a marginal decline of 0.94% YoY from USD 96.46/ton in 3QFY24, and a significant decrease of 15.57% QoQ from USD 110.44/ton in 2QFY25.
Other income is expected to decline by 81% YoY, primarily due to the absence of dividend income from subsidiaries during the quarter.

The average discount rate during the quarter stood at 12%, down from 22% in 3QFY24 and 15% in 2QFY25, reflecting a sharp 10ppt YoY and 3ppt QoQ decline. As a result, finance costs are expected to fall by 11% YoY.

We estimate a DPS of PKR 3.5 for the period.

Local dispatches stood at 1,390,248 tons in 4QFY25, reflecting a 1.9% YoY decline compared to 1,417,208 tons in 4QFY24. On a QoQ basis, dispatches were down 9.32%, from 1,533,157 tons in 3QFY25.
Export dispatches increased by 13.09% YoY to 835,723 tons in 4QFY25, up from 738,924 tons in the same period last year. On a QoQ basis, export volumes rose 16.87%, compared to 715,049 tons in 3QFY25.

On a consolidated basis, Lucky’s 4QFY25 EPS is expected to reach PKR 12.77, reflecting an increase of 12.11% YoY. This growth is primarily driven by improved profitability across key segments, including cement, polyester, power generation, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and mobile divisions.

Courtesy – AHCML Research