EFERT is projected to post an earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 6.58 for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026 (3QCY26), representing a 51% increase year-over-year (YoY) and a 131% increase quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). This growth is driven primarily by a strong recovery in urea sales, with the company’s urea offtakes up 92% YoY to 200,000 tons in September 2026. Quarterly volumes reached 693,000 tons, an 18% increase YoY. However, sales in September experienced a 39% decline month-over-month (MoM) from 326,000 tons in August, indicating some moderation in monthly demand. EFERT’s di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) offtakes also rose to 37,000 tons in 3QCY26, up from 14,000 tons in the same period last year, though volumes remain relatively small.

FFC is expected to report EPS of PKR 15.16, up 12% YoY but down 11% QoQ. The company’s urea offtakes fell 9% YoY to 755,000 tons in the quarter, despite a 10% YoY rise in September sales to 260,000 tons. In contrast, DAP offtakes fell 22% YoY to 198,000 tons in 3QCY26, with September volumes down 45% YoY to 34,000 tons. Weak DAP demand, combined with lower quarterly urea sales, is likely to hurt sequential earnings.

Alongside their 3QCY26 results, we expect EFERT and FFC to announce cash dividends of PKR 6.50 and PKR 12.25 per share, respectively. This implies payout ratios of approximately 95% and 80%, based on our earnings estimates.

Courtesy: AL Habib Capital Markets Pvt Ltd