Topline Pakistan Research has released a report on anticipated cement dispatches for October, even though the month has not yet concluded. According to their analysis, local cement dispatches in Pakistan are expected to increase by 8% to 11% month-over-month (MoM), reaching approximately 3.79 million tons in October 2025. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, dispatches are projected to grow by 11%. This analysis is based on provisional figures for the first 19 days of October, with local sales recorded at 2.25 million tons.

In the North region, the average domestic sales during the first week (based on working days) were 120,000 tons per day, followed by 97,000 tons per day in the second week. Sales improved to 120,000 tons per day in the third week, while the fourth week is expected to average 118,000 tons per day. It is important to note that the slowdown in the second week in the North region was primarily due to political disruptions and ongoing protests by the Tehrik-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP).

In the South region, average daily sales have remained between 15,000 and 18,000 tons during the first three weeks. For the remaining week, an average of 18,000 tons per working day has been assumed.

The anticipated MoM increase in local cement dispatches is driven by a seasonal recovery following the monsoon, as construction activities gradually resume amid easing flood-related disruptions. The YoY increase in local cement dispatches is attributed to heightened housing and construction-related activities, alongside a low base effect in the South region.

Considering these sales figures, the average daily domestic sales for the sector are expected to reach 122,000 tons per day in October 2025, up from 109,000 tons per day in October 2024. Additionally, exports in October 2025 are expected to rise by 12% MoM but decline by 13% YoY. This would bring Pakistan’s total cement sales to approximately 4.73 million tons in October 2025, reflecting a 3% to 5% YoY increase and a 9% to 11% MoM increase.

Notably, local cement capacity utilization in October 2025 is estimated at 54%, up from 48% in October 2024. For the first four months of the fiscal year 2026, total cement sales are projected to show a YoY increase of 12% to 13%, driven by a 12% to 14% rise in local dispatches and an 8% to 9% growth in exports. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), average retail prices in October 2025 declined by 7% YoY in the North, while they increased by 2% MoM in the South.