We project that earnings across the BMA Fertiliser universe will rise by 15% YoY to PKR 149bn in CY25. The growth is expected to be supported by an 18% YoY increase in other income, a 2.3% YoY expansion in urea offtake, and a sharp 41% YoY surge in CAN volumes. On a QoQ basis, earnings are forecast to climb by 30%, largely driven by stronger urea offtake.

Better Urea offtake

Urea sales rose sharply by 26% YoY and 36% QoQ to 2.5mn tons in 4QCY25. In contrast, DAP offtake is projected to decline by 22% YoY, though it is expected to rebound by 60% QoQ to 543k tons during the same period. The increase in urea sales was largely driven by manufacturers’ aggressive discounting, particularly EFERT’s, according to our channel checks.

Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC)

We expect FFC to post an unconsolidated EPS of PKR 16.1 in 4QCY25e, up 32% YoY and 19% QoQ. Earnings growth is primarily driven by higher urea offtake and improved gross margins, amid lower DAP sales. We also anticipate a cash dividend of PKR 11 per share to be announced with the results.

Engro Fertilisers (EFERT)

We estimate EFERT’s consolidated EPS at PKR 7.75 in 4QCY25e, up 1% YoY. The YoY growth is driven by substantially higher urea sales, although aggressive discounting weighed on gross margins. On a QoQ basis, earnings are projected to surge by 78%, supported by a 76% increase in urea offtake. We also expect the company to declare a cash dividend of PKR 8.0 per share with the results.

Fatima Fertiliser Company Limited (FATIMA)

We estimate FATIMA’s consolidated EPS at PKR 7.2 in 4QCY25e, marking a 10% YoY and 25% QoQ increase. The strong earnings performance is driven by a 30% YoY rise in urea offtake and an 86% surge in CAN volumes. Additionally, CY25e other income is expected to grow 33% YoY, supporting full-year EPS of PKR 20.92. We also anticipate a cash dividend of PKR 4.50 per share to be announced with the results.