BMA Research has forecasted a 10% year-on-year increase in Pakistan’s local cement dispatches, reaching approximately 3.09 million tons in August 2025. This rise is primarily attributed to a low sales base in August 2024, when dispatches totaled 2.81 million tons, which is below the three-year average of 3.51 million tons.

Daily domestic sales are projected at 99.7 thousand tons, slightly below the five-year average of 104.1 thousand tons. Exports are expected to rise by 18% year-over-year but decrease by 28% month-over-month to 0.72 million tons. Notably, exports from POWER, ACPL, and KOHC may increase significantly, by 630%, 120%, and 105% YoY, respectively.

Overall cement sales in August 2025 are estimated at around 3.81 million tons, marking an 11% YoY increase despite a 5% MoM decline. Capacity utilization is expected to reach 56%, up from 51% in August 2024.

The average retail price of cement in the North rose by PkR 19 per bag to PkR 1,396, while in the South, it fell by PkR 5 to PkR 1,443.

Looking ahead, local demand is expected to recover in FY26 due to improved fiscal conditions, decreasing inflation, and lower interest rates. We anticipate that growth in exports will further boost dispatches. Coal prices are expected to stabilize around USD 100/ton, influenced by declining global demand. We maintain an overweight stance on the cement sector, favoring stocks like DGKC, FCCL, and MLCF.

Courtesy – BMA Research