AHL Research has estimated the likely earnings of fertilizer companies in 3QCY25. According to provisional data, urea sales rebounded by 21% YoY and 48% QoQ in 3QCY25, reaching 1,854k tons. Cumulatively, urea offtake during 9MCY25 stood at 4,205k tons, down 8% YoY, mainly due to weak farm economics and low farmer purchasing power, further impacted by recent floods.

Meanwhile, DAP sales were recorded at 314k tons in 3QCY25, declining 19% YoY but improving 3% QoQ. Consequently, DAP offtake during 9MCY25 came in at 769k tons, reflecting an 18% YoY drop, primarily due to weak agronomics.

Inventory position

Urea inventory by the end of 9MCY25 stood at 1,004k tons. Meanwhile, DAP inventory settled at 421k tons in 9MCY25.

Result Previews:

EFERT: Bottom-line to plunge by 20% YoY in 3QCY25

Engro Fertilizers Ltd (EFERT) is scheduled to announce its 3QCY25 results on 14th Oct’25. We expect net profit to clock in at PKR 6,802mn (EPS: 5.09), reflecting a 20% YoY drop, driven by 8% YoY decline in revenue due to price discounts offered on urea, a sharp 80% YoY fall in DAP dispatches, higher selling expenses from increased urea offtake and higher finance cost.

For 9MCY25, earnings are expected at PKR 15,432mn (EPS: 11.56), down 14% YoY. Gross margins are anticipated to improve by 300bps to 34% due to lower offtake of low-margin imported DAP. Other income is likely to fall 35% YoY amid reduced returns on cash and equivalents owing to declining interest rates. EFERT is expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 5.00/share for 3QCY25 (9MCY25: PKR 11.50/share).

FFC: Profitability to contract by 12% YoY in 3QCY25

Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd (FFC) is expected to post 3QCY25 earnings of PKR 21,510mn (EPS: 15.11), down 12% YoY, despite higher offtakes. This decline is primarily due to prices discounts offered on urea and significant reduction in other income, as dividends from PMP and power plants were recognized in SPLY. This quarter’s other income includes dividends of PKR 2.0/share from AKBL and other investment income.

For 9MCY25, cumulative earnings are projected at PKR 59.96bn (EPS 42.13), up 12% YoY, supported by the FFBL merger impact. Gross margins in 3QCY25 are expected to contract slightly to 35% vs. 37% in SPLY due to higher DAP offtakes and urea discounts. Other income is forecasted to decline 46% YoY, given higher dividends in SPLY. A cash dividend of PKR 11.0/share is expected alongside the results (9MCY25: PKR 30.0/share).