According to a report released by AL Habib Capital Markets, urea offtake is expected to remain relatively subdued in June 2026, with volumes projected at 586,000 tons, reflecting a marginal 1% year-over-year (YoY) increase. However, on a month-over-month (MoM) basis, offtake is likely to have recovered by 40%, primarily driven by a resurgence in procurement activity during the peak Kharif sowing season, following a slowdown in May.

In contrast, DAP offtake is anticipated to remain weak, declining by 58% YoY and 21% MoM to an estimated 48,000 tons. This contraction is largely attributed to elevated DAP prices, which have reached an all-time high of approximately PKR 16,200 per bag, in line with international pricing trends, thereby dampening demand.

On a company-specific basis, urea sales are expected to show a mixed trend. FFC and FATIMA’s urea sales are likely to grow by 12% and 73% YoY, while EFERT’s urea offtake is expected to fall by 49% YoY.

Cumulatively, FFC and Fatima are projected to maintain their growth momentum, with urea offtakes rising to 1,401,000 tons and 416,000 tons, reflecting increases of 25% and 7% YoY, respectively.

In contrast, EFERT’s cumulative offtake is expected to contract by 22% YoY. For DAP, company performance is expected to remain under pressure, with offtakes for FFC, EFERT, and Fatima projected to decline by 49%, 79%, and 85% YoY, respectively, indicating broad-based weakness in phosphatic demand.

Looking ahead, urea demand is expected to remain stable for the remainder of calendar year 2026, supported by continued agricultural activity and improving farmer economics. However, elevated phosphate prices are likely to keep DAP demand subdued in the near term.