President of the United Business Group (UBG) and former FPCCI President Zubair Tufail has said that as Pakistanis, the nation should support the government’s decision to pay $3.5 billion to the United Arab Emirates. Apparently, Dubai’s rulers urgently need these funds, but it is also possible that they are demanding the amount to exert political pressure on Pakistan. He added that Pakistan should settle this payment so that the UAE cannot apply any pressure on the country.
Zubair Tufail further stated that due to the ongoing tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, the global economy is currently under stress. Crude oil, a fundamental commodity, was priced at around $65 before February 28 but has now surged to $110—an increase of over 70%—affecting economies worldwide.
He said that after crude oil, gas is another critical concern. Qatar, the world’s largest supplier of gas, transports LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. However, with the closure of the strait, LNG shipments have been halted, forcing Qatar to shut down most of its refineries and LNG plants. Qatar has also expressed its inability to continue gas supplies to Pakistan, leading to a global LNG supply disruption. LNG prices in Europe have risen by approximately 70%.
He added that although Pakistan’s industry has not come to a complete halt due to the US-Iran conflict and the Middle East crisis, production costs have increased significantly, and exports are facing hurdles. Referring to a recent tweet by former US President Donald Trump, he warned that if the situation worsens in the next 48 hours, tensions could escalate further. Trump reportedly stated that Iran could be devastated, which could push crude oil prices to between $150 and $175 per barrel.
Zubair Tufail said that Pakistan’s current government is handling these extremely challenging circumstances quite effectively; otherwise, another government might have collapsed under such pressure.
He noted that Pakistan faces a tough test this month, as it must repay $4.8 billion in external debt, which will put pressure on the economy and foreign exchange reserves. This includes a $1.3 billion Eurobond maturing after 10 years.
He warned that the sharp increase in petroleum prices will fuel inflation and create difficulties for lower- and middle-income groups. However, he emphasised that only timely and effective strategies can manage the worsening regional situation. Declining exports and reduced remittances are adding to Pakistan’s challenges, while industries in Karachi continue to bear high electricity costs.
He further stated that rising petroleum prices are crippling the transport sector and severely affecting the country’s supply chain. If the situation persists, there is a risk of shortages of food items and other goods across the country in the coming days.
