AHL Research evaluated the performance of the Pakistan Power Sector for the financial year FY25. They reported the following findings for June 2025. Power generation increased by 2.1% year-over-year (YoY), reaching 13,744 GWh (19,089 MW), compared to 13,459 GWh (18,693 MW) in June 2023. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, generation also grew by 8%.
– The rise in power generation during June 2025 was primarily driven by high demand, aided by reduced tariffs and a shift from captive consumption to the national grid.
– However, for FY25, total power generation was nearly unchanged at 127,160 GWh, compared to 127,165 GWh in the same period last year.
– Imported coal-based generation stood at 1,397 GWh in June 2025, exceeding its reference generation by 142%.
– Local coal-based generation saw a 1.4% YoY increase to 1,510 GWh, but it was still 1.7% below the FY25 reference target.
– Gas-based generation declined by 17% YoY, falling 13% below the reference level.
– Wind power generation increased by 1.2% YoY, though it was 35.5% short of the reference generation.
– Solar power generation fell by 9.8% YoY, standing 2% below its reference level.
– Nuclear generation experienced a significant 31% YoY decline, lagging behind its reference generation by 4.2%.
– RLNG-based generation decreased by 9.1% YoY and was 12.6% lower than the initial FY25 target.
– Hydel generation rose by 14.4% YoY, but it remained 7.9% below the reference level.
– The cost of power generation in June 2025 was PKR 7.87 per kWh. However, after accounting for transmission losses and previous adjustments, the fuel cost dropped to PKR 7.68 per kWh.
– This actual fuel cost of PKR 7.68 per kWh is lower than the reference fuel cost of PKR 8.33 per kWh, which was projected at the beginning of FY25. Consequently, a decrease of PKR 0.65 per kWh in the fuel charge adjustment is anticipated, to be reflected in the August 2025 electricity bill.
– The power generation for June 2025 was 6% lower than the reference generation, which was set at 14,586 GWh.
– Throughout FY25, the accumulated shortfall amounted to 7,831 GWh, with actual generation recorded at 127,160 GWh—reflecting a 6% decline compared to the reference generation.
*Courtesy: AHL Research*
