Topline Pakistan Research has released a report on the fertiliser market in Pakistan, focusing on sales during June 2025. The report forecasts that urea sales for June 2025 are expected to reach 582,000 tons, representing a 39% month-over-month (MoM) and 21% year-over-year (YoY) increase. Inventory levels are projected to reach a 97-month high.

Key points from the report include:

– Urea sales in June 2025 are anticipated to be 582,000 tons, an increase from 483,000 tons in June 2024. The 39% monthly recovery is attributed to the ongoing Kharif season.

– This uptick will bring total urea offtake for the year to 2.35 million tons, a decrease of 23% YoY compared to 3.03 million tons in the previous year, primarily due to weak farm economics and water shortages.

– The closing inventory of urea is expected to be around 1.32 million tons in June 2025, slightly up from 1.31 million tons in May 2025. This level marks the highest inventory in 97 months.

– Company-wise, Engro Fertilisers (EFERT) holds the largest inventory at 580,000 tons, followed by Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) with 338,000 tons, and FATIMA with 330,000 tons.

– EFERT is projected to experience a 34% YoY increase in urea sales, reaching 208,000 tons in June 2025. This rise is due to the low base effect from a previous plant turnaround and discrepancies in urea pricing. Notably, EFERT had announced a price discount of Rs 100-140 per bag, effective from January 2025, which remains in effect. FFC has also implemented a price discount of Rs 40 per bag, effective from May 2025.

– FFC is expected to report urea sales of 215,000 tons, a decline of 17% YoY, while FATIMA is projected to register sales of 81,000 tons, reflecting a significant increase of 92% YoY.

– Total DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) sales for June 2025 are anticipated to be around 108,000 tons, representing a decrease of 12% YoY but an increase of 13% MoM. For the fiscal year, total DAP offtake is expected to reach 448,000 tons, down 18% YoY.

– By company, FFC and EFERT are likely to report DAP sales of 77,000 tons and 12,000 tons, respectively, with other companies expected to contribute an additional 19,000 tons in June 2025.

– The closing inventory of DAP is projected to be around 323,000 tons in June.

This concise summary reflects the expected trends in the fertiliser market in Pakistan for June 2025.-2025 compared to 238k tons in May-2025 and 166k tons in Jun-2024.