A review of performance of Pakistan fertilizer sector in Jan 2022

As per provisional fertilizer offtake data for the month of Jan’22, urea offtake declined by 12% YoY to 574k tons compared to 649k tons in SPLY. Offtake of FFC and FFBL (combined) and FATIMA portrayed a jump of 17% and 31% YoY, respectively, settling at 258k tons and 100k tons, respectively.

Meanwhile, EFERT’s urea sales plunged by 47% YoY, clocking-in at 185k tons. Similarly, on a MoM basis, urea offtake depicted a drop of 4%. The fall in sales comes on the back of reduction in availability of urea due to lower inventory level. Urea sales of FFC and FFBL (combined) and EFERT reduced by 2% and 3% MoM, respectively, while FATIMA reported an uptick of 2% MoM.

DAP offtake up by 1% MoM in Jan’22

DAP sales registered a growth of 43% YoY / 1% MoM reaching 117k tons during Jan’22 amid seasonality factor followed by higher inventory level of DAP. On a company specific basis, DAP sales of FFC and FFBL came out to be 68k tons in Jan’22, portraying a massive surge of 4x YoY which is owed to adequate gas supply to FFBL, which ensured availability of DAP during the month. On MoM basis FFC and FFBL’s DAP offtake plummeted by 17%. Whereas, EFERT’s DAP sales during Jan’22 witnessed a drop of 14% YoY, while displaying a 2x MoM growth to clock-in at 23k tons.

Inventory position

Closing inventory of urea with local producers at the end of Jan’22 stood at 20k tons as compared to 71k tons in Dec’21. Furthermore, inventory position of DAP is set at 105k tons towards the end of Jan’22.

Courtesy- AHL Research

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