Mian Zahid Hussain, President Pakistan Businessmen and Intellectuals Forum & All Karachi Industrial Alliance, Chairman National Business Group Pakistan, Chairman Policy Advisory Board FPCCI, and Former Provincial Minister Information Technology, said today that while the Pakistan Stock Exchange has set a historic milestone by crossing the 182,000-points, the government must not overlook the flashing warning signs in the real economy. Speaking to the business community, he noted that the KSE-100 index’s surge to 182,408 points, a single-day gain of over 3,300 points, reflects strong investor confidence driven by institutional buying and expectations of a further interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy.
He added that with inflation stabilized at 5.6 percent, the conditions for a two percent reduction in the cost of borrowing are favorable, which would be a significant relief for the industrial sector.
Mian Zahid Hussain cautioned, however, that this financial optimism is being dampened by a worrying deterioration in the external sector. He pointed out that the trade deficit for the first half of the current fiscal year has widened by 34 percent to reach $19.2 billion, a trend that could put renewed pressure on the rupee if left unchecked.
He expressed deep concern about the 20 percent year-on-year decline in merchandise exports observed in December, noting that this contraction underscores the severe structural issues facing the country’s manufacturing base. While the Manufacturing PMI rising to a 10-month high of 52.8 is a positive indicator of domestic activity, the inability to translate this into sustained export growth is a critical policy failure that needs immediate rectification.
The veteran business leader highlighted the “emergency-like” situation in the textile sector, which remains the backbone of the national economy. He noted that while textile exports nominally reached $17.85 billion in 2025, this figure masks a volume decline masked by higher global prices. He cautioned that Pakistani exporters are competing under severe constraints, effectively operating with one hand tied behind their backs due to the high cost of doing business and a persistent cotton shortage resulting from repeated crop failures. Cotton production has declined to around 5 million bales, significantly straining export capacity. He further urged the Ministry of Commerce to pursue an aggressive diplomatic and trade outreach strategy to diversify export markets, as competitors such as Vietnam and China continue to outperform Pakistan owing to their lower input costs and better market access.
Mian Zahid Hussain also commented on the government’s proposed five-year tariff reform plan, which aims to simplify import duties into four slabs of 0, 5, 10, and 15 percent. He termed the reduction of duties on 2,700 raw material lines a step in the right direction that could lower production costs and boost competitiveness. However, he advised the government to proceed with caution to ensure that the influx of cheaper finished goods does not harm domestic import-substitution industries. He concluded that sustainable economic recovery requires a balanced approach where stock market gains are matched by tangible growth in exports and industrial output, rather than just financial speculation.
