According to NFDC data, urea offtake in October 2025 decreased modestly by 2% year-over-year (YoY) to 350,000 metric tons (MT), while DAP volumes sharply declined by 29% YoY. This brings the cumulative urea off-take for the first 10 months of calendar year 2025 (10MCY25) to approximately 4.6 million MT, down 8% YoY, whereas DAP volumes fell 19% YoY.
The Rabi 2025-26 season has started on a softer note following two exceptionally strong months in which urea offtake surged by 46% YoY in August and 17% YoY in September. The recent moderation in demand largely reflects channel stuffing, as distributors had front-loaded purchases in the previous months, according to a follow-up report from IMS Research.
Key Highlights:
FFC: Urea offtake declined by 7% YoY to approximately 166,000 MT in October 2025, bringing cumulative volumes to 2.1 million MT, down 15% YoY. FFC’s urea market share slipped 3 percentage points YoY to 47% during the month. Meanwhile, DAP offtake fell 30% YoY to 109,000 MT, bringing cumulative volume to around 650,000 MT for 10MCY25, down 16% YoY. FFC’s DAP market share stood at 50%, significantly lower than its historical average of around 65%, mainly due to market share gains by smaller competitors.
EFERT: Urea offtake was approximately 122,000 MT in October 2025, up 22% YoY, bringing total volumes to 1.4 million MT for 10MCY25, down 6% YoY. EFERT’s urea market share improved significantly to 35%, up 7 percentage points from 28% the previous year. However, the company’s DAP segment continued to underperform, with offtake falling 61% YoY to around 19,000 MT, translating to a 9% market share, down from 16% in the same period last year. The weakness in the phosphates segment is largely due to compressed trading margins, as elevated international DAP prices have not been fully passed on to local consumers.
Closing Inventory: Urea inventories increased by 22% month-over-month (MoM) to 1.4 million MT in October 2025, the highest level since May 2017. If these elevated stock levels persist even after peak Rabi demand in December 2025, the government may consider allowing urea exports.
Overall, urea demand softened in October 2025 following unusually strong buying in the preceding two months. We believe improving farm incomes—supported by a stronger Kharif season, particularly for cotton—and the government’s announced minimum support price for the Rabi 2025-26 wheat crop should help drive a recovery in fertilizer offtake over the medium term.
