• Pakistan’s petroleum sales rose 6% YoY to 1.35 million tons in Dec’25. On a full-year basis, CY25 volumes increased 5% YoY to 16.45 million tons, up from 15.62 million tons in CY24. The annual growth was driven by lower retail prices, MS down 2.1% YoY and HSD down 0.9% YoY, alongside a recovery in automobile sales.
• MS offtake improved by 11% YoY in Dec’25 to 0.63mn tons, driven by higher YoY automobile sales, we view. HSD sales fell 4% YoY to 0.55 million tons, reflecting pressure from reduced cross-border trade activity. We view higher YoY prices. FO sales recorded a strong 40% YoY increase, primarily driven by lower hydel generation during the winter months, which led to a greater reliance on thermal power plants.
• On a MoM basis, total OMC sales decreased by 5% to 1.35 million tons, compared to 1.42 million tons in the same period last year.
• HSD volumes declined 19% MoM in Dec’25, primarily due to subdued regional trade flows, in our view. MS volumes increased 3% MoM, supported by a modest reduction in MS prices alongside improved economic activity.
• Conversely, FO sales improved 130% MoM, driven by the aforementioned reason.
• Cumulatively, in 1HFY26, total petroleum product sales increased 2% YoY to 8.16mn tons compared to 8.03mn tons in SPLY.
• Product-wise, MS and HSD volumes clocked in at 3.86 million tons and 3.57 million tons, respectively, whereas FO sales declined to 0.16 million tons (down 54% YoY, due to PKR 77/litre PDL introduced in the FY26 budget).

Courtesy- AHL Research